Recently, according to U.S. media reports, China’s share of U.S. commodity imports fell to third place for the first time in 15 years. Since 2009, China has been the largest commodity importer in the United States, but has now been outperformed by Mexico and Canada.

According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, between January and May 2023, the total value of U.S. goods imported from China was $16.86 billion, down by 24% compared to 13% of its total imports, down by 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2022. In contrast, U.S. imports from Mexico grew by 5% compared to $195 billion, and the proportion of its total imports also increased from 14% to 15%. However, according to statistics from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce and China Customs, this has not happened. Due to the differences in statistical methods, there is a certain difference in trade data between the two countries.

Despite such data differences, it is undeniable that the peak period of trade between China and the United States has passed. This change is influenced by economic cycles, trade rules and geopolitical factors together. The global rate hike has had a negative impact on the global economy, leading to a trade slowdown and an impact on emerging markets and developing economies.

On the other hand, the new coronavirus also affected trade data. The downturn in global trade, especially in developed countries, where consumers reduced spending on consumer goods such as electronics during the outbreak and increased consumption for the service industry. The decline in China’s export trade to the U.S. is mainly influenced by the recession of the electronics cycle. This trend may continue for a while, making China’s decline in U.S. imports coincide with the trend of Asia’s overall decline in U.S. imports.

Meanwhile, China is deepening into markets outside the United States, with more and more Chinese exports flowing to regions such as the Middle East and Latin America.This reflects Chinas preference for natural resources and enhanced economic links with these regions. China exports products such as cheap electric cars and smartphones to emerging markets, squeezing out expensive Western alternatives, making China surpass Japan in the first quarter of 2023, becoming the worlds largest car exporter.

However, the U.S. side has begun to implement more and more restrictive measures to try to block this gap in indirect exports. In the U.S. view, China has been using the vulnerability of the rules of origin to circumvent tariffs, so the U.S. is actively pushing for the restructuring of the global supply chain and reducing its dependence on China.

Overall, global trade data needs to be interpreted from the perspective of the global supply chain, rather than simply looking at the relationship between the two countries. Global trade prospects will be influenced by various factors, including trends in global economic integration, investment strategies in major economies, and the restructuring of global trade supply chains.