Recently, data released by the General Administration of Customs of China showed that Chinas steel exports were strong in the ten months prior to 2023, up from 34.8%, to 7473.2 million tons. This growth momentum has caused widespread attention in the market, especially in the context of the complex and volatile international political and economic situation.

Increased steel exports this year

As of October, Chinas steel exports reached 793.9 million tons, although the ratio fell by 1.5%, the cumulative exports grew by 34.8% between January and October. In the three quarters before 2023, Chinas crude steel production grew by 1.7%, while crude steel consumption declined by 1.5%. In the context of strong domestic steel supply and demand, exports played an important role inining the balance of domestic market supply and demand. In the export products, the growth of hot plates and medium thick plates was relatively significant, and the export of coated plates remained steady, while the exports of high added value products also increased.

International market demand for China steel

With the exception of China, other countries crude steel production declined by 2.8% compared to the eight months before 2023. This reduction in overseas supply has made Chinas steel exports meet the needs of overseas users. Since this year, Chinas steel export offerings have continued to be higher than the domestic market, plus changes in exchange rates, making export benefits better than domestic sales, and the return of funds is also more guaranteed, thereby enhancing the export momentum of steel enterprises.

Projections for the follow-up of exports

Although Chinas steel exports are currently growing significantly, industry experts expect that steel exports may decline in the fourth quarter due to multiple constraints, but the trend of comparative growth is expected to persist.The China Steel Industry Association analyzes that the expected decline in global economic growth, the contraction of external demand and the rise in international energy prices may have an impact on Chinas steel industry, increasing the cost pressure on steel enterprises.

Changes in overseas markets

In recent years, domestic steel prices remained relatively stable, while the steel prices in overseas markets showed a trend of decline, and the price difference at home and abroad was narrowed. From the situation understood by China Steel Association, the volume of export orders of steel companies has decreased recently. In addition, overseas steel supply capacity is also gradually improving. The decline in the global manufacturing index and the weakening of external demand, plus the restoration of supply outside Shanghai, will have a restrictive effect on Chinas steel exports.

Late steel exports

In the current market environment, China’s steel export price advantage has slightly weakened, while the global manufacturing index’s rebound has exacerbated the contraction pressure of external demand.